Last Tuesday, July 16, I wrote:
If it feels to you like the S&P 500 rallies every single day, well, you’re not wrong. The index has been higher 11 of the last 12 days. It’s been the kind of run that tricks people into thinking it will never end.
After all, the AI story is getting stronger… inflation data has been so weak that the Fed has a clear path to cut interest rates as many as three times this year… earnings are already coming in great… and the race for who will be the next president seems all but over (and the market likes that kind of certainty).
I expect it’s tempting for investors to stay the course and continue to plow money into the stock market. My trading agent says that would be a mistake….there may be a few more days of upside. But that’s it. After that the S&P 500 will be flat to lower for the next two months.
As it turns out, the S&P 500 didn’t have any more days of upside. It started selling off the very next day after I sent you that warning.
Now you could think maybe I got lucky with the timing of that prediction. Or you could think maybe I’ve learned a thing or two during my 27 years in this biz.
OR – you could refer back to the chart I shared with you last week right before the market tanked. Here’s that chart:
Here’s the picture from today through October 1:
As you can clearly see, there may be a few more days of upside. But that’s it. After that the S&P 500 will be flat to lower for the next two months.
…have you noticed that many of the hottest big tech stocks like Nvidia and AMD are down today and haven’t been close to their all-time highs in weeks?
Yes, the rally is just about done.
Now, you might wonder where I get a chart that includes a forecast for what the market will do next.
Fact is, I use a nifty AI program to forecast market direction and also individual stocks to target for trading. This program offers probability scores for rallies and sell-offs. It also calculates expected gains for any stock, over any time frame.
Over the last month, I’ve used this “Trading Agent” program to nail down the following:
- 72% profit on Amazon between June 11 and June 26…
- 6 days to post a 98% winner on Apple between June 25 and July 1…
- 3 days to get a 36% winner on Micron July 8 to July 11 …
- June 27 to July 10 for a 46% winner on Rivian…
- a crushing 359% winner on AMD in a week (July 1 to July 8)…
- 2 days for a 122% gain from Electronic Arts from July 17 to July 19.
Yeah that last one was a downside trade on Electronic Arts, the day after I sent you the message that the rally was ending…122% in two days, not bad at all.
Here’s the forecast I used for that big win with Electronic Arts:
I’ve highlighted the relevant data – the share price of Electronic Arts has dropped during the period I selected in 7 of the last 10 years. That meant it was a pretty good bet to fall this year too…
I’ll take you through a couple of these trade setups, to show you how accurate it is, and what a powerful tool this AI Trading Agent can be for your bottom line.
The Easy Secret to Winning Trades
Back in late May/early June, investors and traders alike were a little nervous. The most recent inflation had come in worse than expected and Fed Chair Powell was pushing back on the idea that the Fed should be cutting interest rates. The markets sold off steadily during the last week of May. It looked like the selling would continue and the rally was in trouble…
But I knew something most investors didn’t…
My Trading Agent said that the S&P 500 would rally from early June to mid-July. Note the 100% Reliability Score I circled…
Knowing this rally was coming made the next part easy. Which stocks would benefit the most from a surprise rally?
Well, there was Amazon:
That was worth 72%…
Then there was Apple a couple of weeks later:
Apple also had a 100% reliability, which makes it pretty easy to be confident in an upside trade. This one was worth 98% in about a week.
Next up was the big one, AMD:
Yeah, the 77.78% reliability score isn’t as good, but look at that expected gain – 14.61%! Catch this one, and it should be a huge winner. It was – 359%!
It was more of the same for Micron and Rivian. But I’m going to skip the details on those two winning trades because what really matters for us today is what’s dead ahead…
Preparation is the Key to Success
Christian DeHaemer and I pride ourselves on helping Outsider Club readers profit from stocks when the time is right. We are also very serious about our responsibility to help you preserve your money when the market gets dicey.
This is one of those times.
The S&P 500 has just a 30% chance of rallying between now and October 2. That doesn’t mean it can’t possibly rally. It doesn’t mean that it’s going to crash. But the odds say stocks will be weak for the foreseeable future.
And if you’d like to learn how to use my Trading Agent to make some loot when stocks really start falling, you can find out more HERE.
Salud!
Briton Ryle
Chief Investment Strategist
Outsider Club
X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/BritonRyle
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I’ve used this “Trading Agent” program to nail down a 72% winner on Amazon, a 98% winner on Apple, a 36% winner on Micron, a 46% winner on Rivian, and a crushing 359% winner on AMD in the last month
Hammer’s Worried about the Market
https://www.outsiderclub.com/the-stock-market-is-overbought/
So Am I
https://www.outsiderclub.com/a-sell-off-is-inevitable/
